League
dynamics
Josh Allen Man Rocket · how this league drafts as a whole, from every season on file. Keepers are locked slots: counted as gone, never as decisions.
The read
The story in this league's numbersNeeds finishes on file — a podium or final standings for at least one completed season. They arrive with a Yahoo history import.
To nail the perfect draft
Round-by-round targets from 2 seasons of this room's behaviourAnchor the opening. Rounds 1–2 are 38% RB and 50% WR here. When the first three picks go RB-heavy, RBs take 38% of the rest of rounds 1–2 (33% otherwise) — plan your R2 pick for the drain.
The QB call. The first QB goes around R1; QB3 is gone by R2 and QB6 by R4 — after the 6th the next one waits ~20 picks.
Depth before the room runs dry. Rookies are 56% of the room's picks.
| Round | The room takes | Watch for |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | RB 46% · WR 46% | RB3 usually gone · RB backups begin · WR3 usually gone · WR backups begin |
| R2 | WR 54% · RB 29% · QB 13% | QB3 usually gone · QB backups begin · RB6 usually gone · WR6 usually gone |
| R3 | WR 38% · QB 25% · RB 25% | TE backups begin |
| R4 | WR 54% · RB 33% · TE 13% | QB6 usually gone · TE3 usually gone |
| R5 | WR 38% · RB 33% · QB 21% | — |
| R6 | RB 38% · WR 33% · TE 17% | TE6 usually gone |
| R7 | WR 42% · RB 33% · QB 17% | — |
Shares are the room's average composition of the round; markers are medians across seasons. Nothing here is written by a model — the AI read above only narrates these numbers.
Playbook
What the numbers say to do on draft dayThe first quarterback goes around pick 9.5 (R1); the first QB run starts around pick 31 (R3) and runs 3 picks, leaving about 7 starter-level quarterbacks on the board when it ends. To start the run yourself, take a quarterback a pick or two before 31.
The first tight end goes around pick 22 (R2); TE runs are rare here (0 a season).
After two straight RBs the next pick is a RB 8% of the time (baseline 34%): the league leans away — a run is a chance to sit and take the other side. 0.5 RB runs a season, the first around pick 25, 3 picks long.
After two straight WRs the next pick is a WR 48% of the time (baseline 46%): no momentum either way — draft the board, not the run. 4 WR runs a season, the first around pick 10, 3.5 picks long.
When two or more of the first three picks are RBs (1 seasons), RBs take 38% of the rest of rounds 1–2; otherwise (1 seasons) 33%.
The first rookie goes around pick 11.5 (R1); 56% of all picks are rookies, and the share climbs late — a keeper league buys its prospects after the starters are settled.
The championship formula
What separates title teams from the fieldNeeds finishes on file — a podium or final standings for at least one completed season. They arrive with a Yahoo history import.
Starters, backups, depth
Shade = how much of each round the position takes · 1 first pick · S starters filled · B backups begin · 2S second wave done · R first run starts| R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | Starters gone · backups | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 1 | B | R | — | ||||
| RB | 1·B | R | — | |||||
| WR | 1·B | R | — | |||||
| TE | 1 | B | — | |||||
| K | — | |||||||
| DEF | — |
Starter counts come from the roster slots (flex split among the positions it takes) × 12 teams; keepers at a position count as already gone. Medians across 2 seasons.
Elite tiers and wait windows
Median pick at which the Nth player at the position goes, and the biggest gap between consecutive picks| Position | 1st | 3rd | 6th | 12th | Starters gone | Range | Cliff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 9.5 (R1) | 24 (R2) | 42.5 (R4) | — | — | — | after the 6th QB, the next goes ~19.5 picks later |
| RB | 1.5 (R1) | 7 (R1) | 15 (R2) | 32.5 (R3) | — | — | after the 10th RB, the next goes ~9 picks later |
| WR | 1.5 (R1) | 5 (R1) | 12.5 (R2) | 25.5 (R3) | — | — | after the 31th WR, the next goes ~8 picks later |
| TE | 22 (R2) | 44 (R4) | 70 (R6) | — | — | — | after the 4th TE, the next goes ~15.5 picks later |
Runs and momentum
A run is 3+ straight picks at one position| Position | Runs / season | First run starts | Range | Length | Starters left after | Follow after 1 | Follow after 2 | Starts the runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 0.5 | 31 (R3) | 31–31 | 3 (max 3) | 7 of 12 |
29%
base 17% · n=21
|
17%
base 16% · n=6
|
Unknown ×1 |
| RB | 0.5 | 25 (R3) | 25–25 | 3 (max 3) | 30 of 43 |
23%
base 35% · n=52
|
8%
base 34% · n=12
|
Unknown ×1 |
| WR | 4 | 10 (R1) | 2–18 | 3.5 (max 5) | 36 of 43 |
37%
base 45% · n=68
|
48%
base 46% · n=25
|
Unknown ×8 |
| TE | 0 | — | — | — | — |
0%
base 12% · n=13
|
— | — |
Opening effect: when two or more of the first three picks are RBs (1 season), RBs take 38% of the rest of rounds 1–2; otherwise (1) 33%. Follow rates: how often the next pick matched after one / two straight picks at the position, against that round's share of the position.
The shape of each round
Average composition of the round across seasons (non-keeper picks)Rookies and keepers
Rookies are 56% of picks (entry year known for 100% of picks). The first rookie goes around pick 11.5 (R1). By position: WR 38, RB 30, QB 10, TE 10.
Season by season
Where the first QB/TE/K/DEF went, runs, R1 RB share, rookies, keepers| Season | First QB | First TE | First K | First DEF | Runs | R1 RB share | Rookies | Keepers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 8 (R1) | 28 (R3) | — | — | 5 | 33% | 45 | 0 |
| 2025 | 11 (R1) | 16 (R2) | — | — | 5 | 58% | 43 | 0 |
Reaches and steals
Pick minus ADP; ±12 picks counts as a reach or a stealNeeds an ADP baseline per season. The current season uses Yahoo's pre-season rank from the snapshot once the draft is in; past seasons come from Yahoo's Draft Analysis pages (the extension collects them on the next export) or an imported ADP list.
Everything on this page is computed from the league's own drafts on file. Runs, momentum and timing use non-keeper picks; keepers count as already gone when starters are tallied. The draft simulator's manager profiles share the same rows.